A cockpit for AI, economy, climate and society through 2100. Each scenario runs many random futures. The dials show the spread. Flip the cockpit to read it from the world to you, or from you to the world.
Scenario tool, not a forecast. Parameters are uncertain and many are guesses. Read the results as "what tends to follow what", not as predictions. The tool gives no career, financial or legal advice.
Nothing is computed yet. Make your choices in four steps. Then press Run simulation.
Say who you are. The page shows how the futures treat a person like you.
A change here does not start a new simulation. The page reads the runs that it already has.
Pick policies for scenario A. Add scenario B if you want to compare. Each card is one policy.
Pick which rare events can happen in the runs. They apply to every scenario.
Each run is one possible future. More runs give smoother results but take longer.
Each run is one possible future. The model draws uncertain values, such as climate sensitivity or AI progress, at random for each run. It also draws random events, such as a Taiwan crisis.
This starts a simulation. It runs many random futures for each scenario.
Each chart follows one number to 2100. Open "How to read it" under a chart for help.
Deep views. How the model works.
Colour shows one number per region in the chosen year. Darker means higher. Click a tile to open that country.
The same kind of charts for one region. Pick it here or on the map.
Look at one single run. It shows what happens in one possible future, with its events and the causes inside the AI module.
Nodes show the recorded AI state of the run. A dash means the series is not recorded.
Each slider shows the default value and the range the runs draw from. Moving a slider fixes that value in every run.
This is the region in your profile. Change it in the setup.
Levers are decisions of governments. Pull a lever to see what happens if politics does this. Below each lever: how people like you push it.
This is an extra step. You do not need it to pull levers. The page adds each lever alone to scenario A from 2028, at its default strength. It uses 100 runs per lever and the same seeds as the base case. This takes about 30 seconds. The result stays until you change scenario A. The numbers then show in each lever tile.
Each lever tile shows its parameter name. The model has more parameters. See the assumptions in the workbench, in the World deck.
Takeoff Sim is a scenario tool, not a forecast. Sources per parameter are in the Assumptions tab; "guess" marks parameters without a source.